Bitcoin volatility hits ATL, Indonesia ready to switch regulators, and DefiLlama’s DEX aggregator moves to public beta
The week’s markets were defined by continued lateral movements with Bitcoin price reaching another all-time low for volatility. News of Tesla’s 2022 numbers raised the spirits of a dogged crypto community while Solana and Cardano went on a tear.
At a glance...
- Gemini Co-Founder appeals to Barry Silbert
- New Year’s jump for NFT price floors
- Tesla storylines boost crypto market blues
- RTFKT COO falls victim to NFT scam
- Bitcoin turns 14, celebrates with volatility ATL
Top Market Trends for 2023
- Gemini Co-Founder Cameron Winklevoss tweeted an open letter to Genesis and DCG CEO Barry Silbert, making an impassioned appeal for the 340,000 Gemini-Earn customers who lost access to a collective $900 million.
- NFT price floors for leading collectibles experienced a New Year’s rebound. BEANZ Official, Goblintown WTF, and Sappy Seals were all up significantly, with the latter’s price floor up over 64%.
- Positive Tesla coverage boosted the moods of the bear-tired crypto community; Cathie Wood noted that cheap-to-maintain EV cars are becoming popular with Hertz and Uber drivers, driving up demand. Elon published Tesla’s California Footprint report, explaining in detail how Tesla’s growth has reached a tipping point.
- DefiLlama went public with their beta version DEX aggregator on January 3rd, quickly attaining the 2nd highest volume among DEXes using OX’s aggregation technology.
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Technical Summary
Bitcoin Pulse
Bitcoin price rose moderately, testing its lingering compulsion for low volatility. In fact, Bitcoin volatility hit an all-time low this week, as its current supply is largely now in the hands of HODLers. Still, price is teasing a move to a new support level around the $17k mark.
- It was Bitcoin’s 14th birthday on January 3rd and some members of the community celebrated by sending small amounts of BTC to Satashi Nakamoto’s wallet, the first wallet ever to receive a Bitcoin mining reward.
- BTC hit a 14-day high of $16,972, but then reverted back to sideways action.
- The majority of oscillators were showing Neutral, with only 2 exceptions: MACD and Momentum.
BTC - Low Timeframe
tl/dr:
- After mitigating extreme bullish order block in short-term range, bullish trend reached liquidity pool above $16,950 before retracing.
- Bearish momentum continues as we target discounted prices.
- Potential scenarios: move into $16,680, bearish move to $16,650, or deeper discounted prices if $16,650 fails as support.
- Rejection of 1H 50 EMA may indicate bearish scenarios.
After mitigating the extreme bullish order block of the short-term range, the continued bullish trend made its way to the liquidity pool above the $16,950 high before it started to see any form of retracement.
This then led to price raiding on sell-side liquidity before continuing to be bearish and mitigating a bullish order block at equilibrium. However, given that the price has yet to reach discounted prices, we could still see continued bearish momentum as we target those areas of value.
Potential scenarios moving forward are as follows:
- We see price move into the $16,680 level before price decides if continued bullish momentum is to take place.
- We see a bearish move to the $16,650 price level before the bullish trend continues.
- Or $16,650 fails to act as support and we target deeper discounted prices.
Given that we have just rejected the 1H 50 EMA after breaking below it, this is a potential sign we may be heading for bearish scenarios.
BTC - Macro View
tl/dr:
- BTC/USD has continued its sideways correction formation, attracting buying and selling pressure and aligning liquidity above and below the current range.
- Awaiting a break of either the high or low of the current short-term range, but expect the initial move to be short-term manipulation before reversing.
- Value area for mid-term longs is under $16,200, and value area for mid-term shorts is around $17,800.
- 50 EMA approaching, rejection could push price below December 15th low.
On the daily chart, BTC/USD has continued its higher timeframe sideways correction formation as it accumulates further, drawing in both buying and selling pressure and lining up liquidity both above and below the current range of importance.
We await a break of either the high or low of the current short-term range, but we expect this initial move may be a short-term manipulative move inducing traders to enter in that direction before reversing in the opposite direction.
A value area for mid-term longs would be under the $16,200 price level and the value area for mid-term shorts would be around the $17,800 price level.
However, short-term longs and shorts before reaching these areas are probable. As we continue to move sideways, the 50 EMA approaches further, where a rejection could be the catalyst to push price below the December 15th low.
Altcoins on the Move
Ethereum (ETH) price reclaimed the $1250 support line and was up 4%. Dune analytics reported that 77.5% of ETH stakers were currently at a loss. When Ethereum’s Shanghai Fork is implemented this year (set for March) unlocking staked ETH and rewards, analysts will be watching to see whether stakers get shaken out or hold for the longer term.
- Cardano (ADA) was the top performer in the top 10 cryptos by market cap, up 10.2%. News that ADA entered the top 10 list for coins most used as payments may have helped with the price action.
- Solana (SOL) rebounded this week, with a new head of strategy leading drawing in top developers and a new Solana-based meme coin $BONK throwing 3300% gains.
- Overall, altcoin losses leveled out - the worst performer within the top 100 coins Huobi (HT), bled by only 12.0%.
Ethereum Macro
tl/dr:
- ETH continues lower time frame trend, entering a premium of short-term range between $1350 high and $1150 low.
- Bearish order block at $1300 could be a value area for short positions, but resistance and bearish moves may occur at current prices due to 50 EMA.
- If breaking out of short-term range, targeting $1423 for profit-taking by longs and shorts re-entering, and $1140 for profit-taking by shorts and longs re-entering.
Similarly to BTC/USD, ETH has found itself continuing its lower time frame trend as it makes its way into the premium of the short-term range between the high of $1350 and the low of $1150.
The bearish order block at $1300 would be a logical area of value for short positions to enter if it were to hold; however, given that we have now reached the 50 EMA and are in the premium of the short-term range, we may find resistance and bearish moves initiated from current prices.
Alternatively, if we are to break out of the shorter-term range, we would be targeting the $1423 price level for profit-taking by longs and shorts re-entering the market. On the same token, we would be looking at the $1140 price level for profit-taking shorts and longs to re-enter the market.
Newsworthy:
- Indonesia is building out a crypto exchange, getting ready for later in 2023, when crypto oversight switches from a commodities agency to the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Under the current commodities regulator, Bappebti, 383 crypto assets are available with over a hundred more under review.
- Celsius Network owns its customers’ crypto deposits, a US Bankruptcy Court ruled this week. So 600,000 account holders with $4.2 billion assets will unfortunately be last in line for liquidation payments.
- RTFKT COO Nikhil Gopalani was scammed on Monday, losing all of his CloneX NFTs and other digital assets valued at $173+. The loss was due to a phishing exploit by someone impersonating an Apple employee.
- The current leading presidential candidate in Argentina is a bitcoin advocate. Javier Gerardo Milei, out of Buenos Aires, was quoted as saying that “the Central Bank is a scam. It is a mechanism by which politicians cheat the good people with the inflationary tax.”
Tweet of the Week!
The Bitcoin network processed nearly $15 trillion worth of transfer volume in 2022. pic.twitter.com/FNYH8S9z6z
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) January 3, 2023
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is for general market education and commentary and is not intended to serve as financial, investment, or any other type of advice.
