/ Crypto Weekly

FTX CEO Sam-Bankman Fried Arrested on 8 Charges; During Proceedings, CFTC Anoints BTC, ETH, and USDT as Commodities

Another harrowing week in crypto saw the arrest of Sam Bankman-Fried and multiple charges against him by the SEC and CFTC. A new US bill was introduced for forcing KYC onto self-custodial wallets, and Canada banned crypto exchanges from leverage and margin trading.

At a glance...




  • SBF arrested and sued by SEC and CFTC
  • Extreme Binance outflows sparked debate
  • The Block CEO resigned amid FTX disclosure
  • The battle for self-hosted wallets raged on
  • BTC, ETH, and USDT distinguished as commodities


Top Market Trends

Movers and Shakers

Top 7-day Gainers:
OKC +53.8%
TON +30.3%
BSV +13.0%
OKB +12.6%
XDC +8.8%

Top 7-day Losers:
TWT -26.5%
XRD -20.4%
FLOW -18.1%
DOGE -16.1%
XCN -14.3%

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Technical Summary

Bitcoin Pulse
Bitcoin price jumped to Tuesday's CPI news signaling waning inflation growth, but then fell from a 5-week high of $18,318.53 on Wednesday. While exchange outflows were alarming in size, the overall sentiment is bullish for BTC as investors HODL their Bitcoin in self-custody.

  • BTC net exchange outflows equaled $1.4B in one 24-hour period this week.
  • Long-term Bitcoin investors are currently self-custodying a record high 13.9 million bitcoins.
  • According to an analyst at VanEck’s ETF and mutual fund manager, Bitcoin could drop to the $10,000 support level in Q1 2023.

BTC - Low Timeframe

At Wednesday's market breakdown, we were waiting to see if price would respect the 1D buy-side liquidity or if it would purge it. We got our answer soon after when the price spiked, grabbing the 1D liquidity and selling off aggressively.

BTC-MICRO--4-

Now that price has begun to move bearish, breaking and retesting below the 50 EMA on the 1H chart, we would naturally expect price to:

  1. Reach discount prices
  2. Mitigate a bullish order block in discount
  3. Close open fair value gaps
  4. Act as value areas for short- or longer-term longs to take place.

As can be seen, confirmations of these levels through a trend change or manipulation would confirm the bullish value levels to look for longs.

BTC - Macro View

BTC/USD has been in a bullish trend since the 21st of November after taking 1D sell-side liquidity under the $15,500 price level.

BTC-MACRO--4-

Price continued to trend on the LTFs until it took 1D buy-side liquidity above the $18,150 level. We saw price print a strong rejection candle, with bulls unable to close the day's price above the $18,150 level. At the same time, we rejected the 50 EMA on the daily chart, which has been acting as a form of support/resistance when coupled with order blocks, equilibrium, fair value, and buy-side/sell-side liquidity.

This signals bearish pressure entering the market as bulls offload some of their positions and bears see a potential value area for shorts. It remains to be seen whether these shorts are short-term as a pullback in the LTF bull trend or a continuation of the HTF bear trend.

If the market lows formed in November are to be the market bottom, we would likely see a retracement to the $17,000 price level as a value area for continuation longs up into the EQ of the weekly/monthly price range from $25,200-$15,500, where we would expect some form of retracement.

Altcoins on the Move

BNB was down 13.6% and Binance's Trust Wallet token (TWT) was the worst top-100 performer over the last 7 days, down 26.6%. During the week, Binance experienced $3.7 billion in exchange outflows. USDC withdrawals on Binance were temporarily stalled due to demand and not enough liquidity - but CZ assured users that the delay was only due to a bank being closed.

Ethereum Macro

Unlike BTC/USD, the low printed on November 22nd failed to form a lower low running daily sell-side liquidity, implying that the high on November 10th was our 4H buy-side liquidity.

ETH-MACRO--3-

Price ran this buy-side liquidity, resulting in a false break above the 50 EMA, trapping breakout traders in long positions, who were likely liquidated (a typical manipulation process).

We are now waiting for prices to reach discount levels, match bullish order blocks, and close fair value gaps to position for short or longer-term longs.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article is for general market education and commentary and is not intended to serve as financial, investment, or any other type of advice.